The Definitive Guide

Q1
2026

Super Bowl LX lands six days before Valentine's Day. Presidents' Day falls one day before Chinese New Year. This is your comprehensive guide to the most compressed retail calendar in years.

47
Days of Opportunity
$46B+
Combined Spend
8
Consecutive Peak Days
66%
Mobile Traffic Share
Scroll
Why December 26 is Actually Day One

The "Q5" Phenomenon

That post-Christmas exhale everyone takes? It's a trap.

The retail industry has quietly started calling December 26 through mid-January "Q5"—and the numbers explain why. Gift card redemption drives this: 40-50% of gift cards purchased in November/December are redeemed in Q1's first months, with consumers spending $59 more on average than the card's face value.

Gift card recipients aren't your regulars—they're first-time customers forming lasting impressions. 44% visit a store they wouldn't have visited otherwise. Get this wrong and you've lost a pre-paid customer who cost you nothing to acquire.

40-50%
Gift cards redeemed in Q1
$59
Extra spend beyond card value
44%
Recipients visiting new stores
21.2%
Fitness category January surge

The fitness window closes fast: Target January 1-12 before "Quitters Day" hits around January 12, when 80% of resolution-makers abandon their goals.

January 2026

Jan 1
New Year's Day + Gift Card Surge
Retail
Jan 6-9
CES 2026
Tech
Jan 15
Animal Crossing: Switch 2 Edition
Gaming
Jan 19
MLK Day
Retail
Jan 20-25
Paris Men's Fashion Week
Fashion
Jan 22
Nike Kobe 1 Protro "81 Points"
Sneakers
Jan 22
Xbox Developer Direct
Gaming
Jan 23
Eagles "Long Goodbye" at The Sphere begins
Retail
Jan 24
Air Jordan 9 "Flint Grey"
Sneakers
Jan 26-29
Paris Haute Couture Week
Fashion
Jan 31
Nike Kobe 8 Protro "Year of the Horse"
Sneakers
Jan 31
Moncler Grenoble FW26 Show (Aspen)
Fashion
Late Jan
Samsung Galaxy S26 Unpacked
Tech
Late Jan
CNY Beauty Collections Launch
Beauty
January 6-9, 2026

CES 2026 & The Tech Calendar

Press conferences begin January 4 with Samsung's "The First Look." The main event runs January 6-9 in Las Vegas, setting the stage for Q1 tech launches.

Key Keynotes

NVIDIA
Jan 5, 1 PM PT
Jensen Huang ~90-minute presentation
AMD
Jan 5, 6:30 PM PT
Ryzen 7 9850X3D, FSR Redstone AI
Intel
Jan 6
Core Ultra Series 3 "Panther Lake" launch
Samsung
Late Jan
Galaxy S26 Unpacked, retail mid-Feb

Xbox Developer Direct

Confirmed for January 2026 (likely January 22). Playground Games presenting Fable and/or Forza Horizon 6 content. Microsoft signals "more stuff than can fit in one show."

January 20 - March 10

Fashion Week Calendar

Paris Men's
Luxury brand activations
January 20-25
Paris Haute Couture
Glenn Martens at Maison Margiela
January 26-29
New York
CFDA updated dates
February 11-16
London
Temperley London 25th anniversary
February 19-23
Milan
FW26-27 collections
February 24 - March 2
Paris
Season finale
March 2-10

Notable debuts: Duran Lantink at Jean Paul Gaultier (first couture January 2026), Moncler Grenoble FW26 show in Aspen (January 31).

February 8, 2026 • Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara
LX

Super Bowl

The Hype Multiplier

$18.6B+ projected spend
Bad Bunny becomes the first Latin male artist to solo headline the halftime show.

The six-day gap between Super Bowl (February 8) and Valentine's Day (February 14) means food and beverage brands can create campaigns spanning both events. Bad Bunny's halftime creates Latino market activation potential unprecedented in the event's history.

81%
Viewers making food/bev purchases
Avg $44/person
7-8%
Purchase new TVs for the game
11%
Team merchandise purchase intent
6 days
Until Valentine's Day
February 14, 2026

Valentine's Day

Saturday Changes Everything

$27.5B projected

Landing on a Saturday shifts the entire commerce dynamic. Experience-based gifting gets a major boost. But for product-focused brands, this creates urgency: last-minute shoppers can't wait until the weekend to buy.

$6.5B
Jewelry
$4.4B
Experiences
$3B
Clothing
$2.6B
Flowers
$2.2B
Candy
$2.1B
Gift Cards

38% shop online (top destination), followed by department stores (34%) and discount stores (29%). Mobile dominates: 66% of e-commerce visits, 51.4% of revenue.

January - February 2026

Sneaker Release Calendar

Jan 22
Nike Kobe 1 Protro "81 Points"
$210
Iconic Anniversary
Jan 24
Air Jordan 9 "Flint Grey"
$210
Classic Retro
Jan 31
Nike Kobe 8 Protro "Year of the Horse"
$180
CNY Heat
Feb 1
BAPE x adidas World Cup Pack
$160-200
FIFA Tie-in
Feb 7
Air Jordan 4 WMNS "Valentine's Day"
$220
Most Coveted V-Day
Feb 13
Air Jordan 1 High OG "All-Star"
$185
NBA ASW Timing
Feb 14
Air Jordan 6 "Reverse Infrared"
$210
V-Day Grail
Feb TBD
Fragment x Union x Jordan 1
$205
HIGHEST Q1 HYPE

February 2026

Feb 1
68th Grammy Awards
Retail
Feb 1
BAPE x adidas World Cup Pack
Sneakers
Feb 5
Dragon Quest VII Reimagined
Gaming
Feb 6
Nioh 3 (PS5 Exclusive)
Gaming
Feb 7
Air Jordan 4 WMNS "Valentine's Day"
Sneakers
Feb 7
Taste of the NFL Event
Retail
Feb 8
Super Bowl LX
Sports
Feb 11-16
New York Fashion Week
Fashion
Feb 12
Mario Tennis Fever (Switch 2)
Gaming
Feb 13
Air Jordan 1 High OG "All-Star"
Sneakers
Feb 13-15
NBA All-Star Weekend (LA)
Sports
Feb 14
Valentine's Day (Saturday)
Retail
Feb 14
Air Jordan 6 "Reverse Infrared"
Sneakers
Feb 16
Presidents' Day
Retail
Feb 17
Chinese New Year (Year of the Horse)
Retail
Feb 17
Supreme SS26 Lookbook Expected
Fashion
Feb 19
Supreme SS26 First Drop
Fashion
Feb 19-23
London Fashion Week
Fashion
Feb 27
Resident Evil Requiem
Gaming
Feb TBD
Fragment x Union x Jordan 1
Sneakers
Plan for Chaos

Fragment x Union x Jordan 1

The most anticipated sneaker drop of Q1 2026. Three colorways, extremely limited stock, unprecedented bot traffic expected.

Top 3
~44,000 pairs
Sport Royal
~15,000 pairs
Japan Exclusive
~4,700 pairs

Expect: Bot traffic exceeding human traffic by 10:1. Site instability across every retailer. Resale premiums of 300-500% within hours. Customer service volume spikes lasting days.

Infrastructure Stress Test

The Critical Stretch

February 8-17

Super BowlValentine's DayPresidents' DayChinese New Year

Eight consecutive days of high-traffic potential. If your infrastructure isn't stress-tested for overlapping load, you're rolling the dice with your brand.

February 17, 2026

Year of the Horse

Critical correction: Many brands produced "Year of the Snake" creative based on 2025. Chinese New Year 2026 begins the Year of the Fire Horse. Horse symbolism—freedom, energy, passion—aligns beautifully with February's romantic themes.

Chinese New Year luxury collections from premium brands launch late January through early February. Clé de Peau Beauté, Sulwhasoo, Lancôme (celebrating its 90th anniversary), Givenchy, and Charlotte Tilbury all have limited-edition CNY packaging and products.

Know Your Numbers

Conversion Benchmarks

Global average conversion1.65-1.89%
"Best-converting" Shopify storesAbove 3%
January 2024 (post-holiday)3.32%
Desktop conversion3.9%
Mobile conversion1.8%
Amazon10-13%

That mobile gap is brutal. Your site might convert at 4% on desktop—but when 66% of your Q1 traffic comes from mobile at 1.8% conversion, the math gets ugly fast. Optimize accordingly.

How Far Ahead You Actually Need

Planning Lead Times

Major product launch
Stakeholder alignment, beta testing, marketing runway
4-5 months
Limited edition drop
Scarcity messaging, influencer coordination, waitlist building
4-6 weeks
Ticket on-sale
Infrastructure stress testing, pre-sale strategy, demand forecasting
6-8 weeks
Pre-order campaign
Demand validation, feedback integration
6-8 weeks
Flash sale/promotion
Inventory positioning, marketing coordination
2-4 weeks

Ready for Q1?

The winners in Q1 2026 will be platforms that treat January 1 through February 17 as a continuous selling season rather than discrete events. Fanfare handles the stampede so you can focus on the strategy.

Learn More About Fanfare